PD Pathways

Knowledge obsolescence is not a memory problem. It’s a relevance problem. The Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve explains how quickly we lose what we’ve learned without reinforcement – up to 70% within days. Forgetting is predictable; understanding should not be. Our decision-making brain does exactly what it’s designed to do: pruning and tuning. Mental models that aren’t challenged harden into blind spots. Decisions, left unexamined, calcify into habits. This is where seasoned leaders often find themselves trapped. They may remember what was learned earlier in their careers but increasingly discover much of it no longer applies. 

If the rate of learning doesn’t exceed or at least keep pace with the rate of change, hubris about one’s competence becomes an organizational liability. If you’re not improving by at least 10% a year, you’re falling behind. Leadership capacity is not something you earn and then leverage indefinitely. It’s a perishable asset that requires disciplined and deliberate renewal. Certain fundamental skills – like good judgment, clarity of thinking, building trust and strategic foresight – retain their value and utility. Most adopted techniques, frameworks and operating assumptions do not. They are context-bound. And context is what’s changing at warp speed.

Upskilling, done properly, shouldn’t be episodic. Rather, it must be a continuous, systematic replacement of outdated thinking with better tools, models and rules. At the core of that journey remain two vital capabilities: problem selection and decision making. These are not abstract processes; they are rigorously developed disciplines. Leadership effectiveness is now measured less by what you think you know and more by how well you think when what you know no longer applies.

Today’s workplace is much different from less than a decade ago: information is voluminous and moves instantly, instability is inevitable, expertise is widely distributed, and employees expect greater transparency, fairness and inclusion. The rise of remote or hybrid work and digital collaboration has shifted how organizations function. AI is reshaping entire industries, supply chains are shifting overnight, regulatory frameworks are tenuous and geopolitical risks alter the landscape with little warning. Decisions must now be made with incomplete information and unknown consequences. And few are equipped to do that. 

As volatility increases, the half-life of traditional business models shortens. Experience remains useful but needs to be supplemented with different competencies – probabilistic thinking, risk analysis and strategic foresight among them. Leaders who can think in terms of ranges of outcomes rather than single smart choices are better prepared to navigate uncertainty. Many executives built their careers mastering analytical tools that focused on efficiency, cost management and operational control. While still relevant, problem definition must now encompass variables like margin compression, regulatory pressures, technological disruption, talent shortages and rapidly changing stakeholder expectations. Leaders need to hone their systems thinking and alignment skills – it’s less about solving problems and more about defining them correctly in an era of uncertainty and complexity. 

Leaders need to acknowledge the decreasing half-life of what got them to where they are. Maintaining competence requires continuous learning. This doesn’t mean chasing every new management trend or attending endless professional development seminars. Leaders must treat competence as a moving target rather than a static stock of remembered theories about how to run the business. They need to acquire the capacity to operate at the edge of their abilities – where they have to struggle with the learning, where they’re forced to make errors, think about them and correct them. They must be more receptive to critical feedback from themselves as well as others, seek out perspectives that challenge their cherished assumptions, and critically examine decisions after the fact to understand why the outcomes differed from their expectations.

As noted, experience is valuable; it’s just no longer enough. Without periodic reassessment, renewal or re-invention, experience is outdated pattern recognition – what was useful for solving yesterday’s problems may be increasingly unreliable for tomorrow’s. The most dangerous aspect of knowledge decay is that it happens quietly and insidiously. Because confidence is built largely on past success, leaders rarely notice when their decision models begin losing accuracy. While their judgment is rational, it gradually can produce weaker results. Strategy becomes reactive rather than anticipatory and intelligible. Just as organizations invest in maintaining equipment and upgrading technology, leaders must invest in maintaining relevance. 

In a world where knowledge expands at hyper speed, the most valuable leadership skill may be the ability to unlearn and relearn faster than the changes occurring around them. Those who rely solely on past theories risk discovering, often too late, that what made them successful is not as reliable as it once was.  

Now is the time to invest in your continuous learning.  Join Dr. Jim Murray this summer for one of his upcoming certificate programs including Managing for High Performance and Redefining Leadership.  You can also select from several standalone seminars such as From Manager to Leader and Why Successful Companies Fail (and how to fix them). 

Looking ahead to fall, watch for his sessions on The Science of Fearless Decision Making,  Strategic Foresight, Planning and Modeling and Building Innovation Capability.

After beginning his career at Deloitte and Ernst & Young in both the UK and North America, he went on to lead global finance transformation programs before founding his firm, We Deliver Your Vision. John now works exclusively with senior finance and operations leaders navigating AI adoption—from strategy through execution—delivering practitioner‑focused sessions grounded in real‑world decisions rather than hype or theory.

Drawing on nearly a decade in top‑tier consulting and extensive industry experience, John combines the rigor of large‑scale transformation with the agility of an independent specialist. He brings insights from global peers, thought leaders, and innovation networks, translating them into practical, actionable guidance. His work spans a wide range of international organizations, including Deloitte, Ernst & Young, Bank of Scotland, RSA, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, Talisman Energy, INLIV Health, and Enbridge Pipelines.

Level up your AI readiness by attending one of John Hetherington’s live vitual sessions on The AI-Ready Finance Leader: How to Lead, Decide, and Thrive When Technology Does the Work and on-demand title on The Agile CFO: 3 Ways to Lead Technology Change & Navigate Complexity. Make sure you’re registered for PD Nexus AI Insights, where he’ll headline the morning plenary with learnings you can act on right away. Spots fill quickly—reserve yours today.